Abstract
. In this study, we have analyzed rainfall data from 2000 to 2014
for Potohar region that is, Chakwal, Jhelum and Rawalpindi. Importance
of this region cannot be denied as this region is rich in agriculture. Crop
situation in the region depends completely on rainfall on suitable timings. Absence of or untimely rainfall lead to drought situation in Potohar. The region has faced severe to moderate drought condition in the
history. Therefore, study of pattern of rainfall in the region is beneficial for agriculture sector in Pakistan. Seasonal autoregressive integrated
moving average (SARIMA) model has been applied in order to study the
rainfall pattern from 2000 to 2014. Furthermore, validation of the model
is done on the data from 2015 to 2016. Afterwards, future prediction has
also been done using parameters obtained from historical data. Forecasted
values obtain from the suggested model of rainfall will help farmers and
decision makers for sowing crop on appropriate time
Samreen Fatima, Mehwish Shafi Khan. (2018) Forecasting Rainfall in Potohar Region of Pakistan in the Perspective of Drought, Punjab University Journal of Mathematics, Volume 50, Issue 4.
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