Abstract
The main objective of the study is to find out the determinants of petroleum supply and also to forecast the
future supply of petroleum in Pakistan for the period of 1972-2018.Johenson Cointegration technique is
employed to get the required objective. It is assumed that GFCF, FDI, FOP and Technology are the main
determinants of petroleum supply in the country based on past literature. Sign of the coefficient of the
variables are in line with theory. The study concludes that GFCF, FOP and Technology are statistically
significant determinants of total petroleum supply in Pakistan. The study forecasted the petroleum supply in
Pakistan from 2019 to 2030 by using ARIMA model. The results show that average forecast value of total
petroleum 11864.3 by 2030. According to the ARIMA forecasted results, there is increasing trend in the
supply petroleum products. The finding of the study shows that the price of petroleum and technology has
positive impact on total petroleum supply. The results showed that price elasticity of petroleum supply is
inelastic. The results of forecasted values showed the increasing trend in supply of petroleum.
FAZLE WAHID, HAMID ULLAH, SHABANA PARVEEN, BIBI AISHA SADIQA. (2020) The Determinants and Forecasting of Petroleum Supply in Pakistan, International Review of Management and Business Research, Volume 9, Issue 2.
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