Abstract
This study analyzes the impact of institutional development on firm-specific return
predictability using daily stock prices from 2004 to 2018. The objective of the present
study is to investigate return volatility after the institutional development in the Pakistan
Stock Exchange from 2009 onwards. The empirical research methodology adopted for
firm-specific return predictability includes the Fama and French (FF) three-factor model
(1992), the Augmented Fama and French (AFF) three-factor model, containing timevarying component, along with the Chow test for policy changes. The results exhibit a
significant relationship between stock returns and risk during all sub-periods (nonreform period: January 2004 to June 2008, reform period I: January 2009 to December
2013, and reform period-II: January 2014 to December 2018). One of the significant
findings of this study is that the time-varying component in betas is changing over time,
which leads the researchers, security analysts, and portfolio managers to consider the
time-varying risk factor in their analysis. It is also found that the volatility in return
increases significantly during the second reform period (January 2014 to December
2018), which is a manifestation of institutional development and financial liberalization,
a peculiar characteristic of emerging markets. Moreover, the Chow test and the
coefficient of the dummy variable indicates a significant impact of institutional
development and financial liberalization on return predictability. The results of the study
are consistent with the behaviors of the emerging markets.
Abida Hafeez, Mohammad Nishat. (2019) The Impact of Institutional Development on Return Predictability in Pakistan, NUML International Journal of Business & Management, Volume 14, Issue 2.
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