Abstract
Economic forecasting, both specific and general, is a crucial part of economic planning for a country. It is required to effectively deal with uncertainity as well as possible negative
impact of proposed policies in future. Therefore, correct predictions will improve the effectiveness
of the decision-making process. This study is a pioneering attempt to forecast aggregate and regional trade of Pakistan by using annual time series data from 1974 to 2014. With the help of
fan chart, aggregate and regional trade of Pakistan have been forecast from 2015 to 2020. Fan
chart provides ranges of forecast at different levels of significance as well as assesses. The risk
associated with the forecast value, namely upside and downside risk. The results suggest that there
is considerable uncertainty associated with the regional trade of Pakistan. The policy makers are
suggested to monitor downside risk associated with the exports and upside risk associated with the
imports of the country.
Syed Tehseen Jawaid, Abdul Waheed. (2017) Uncertainty and Risk Analysis of Pakistan’s Regional Trade: Fan Chart Approach, Journal of Management Sciences, Volume 4, Issur 1.
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