Abstract
In this paper five separate models were developed for Pakistan, Punjab, Sindh and NWFP for Sugarcane area forecasting. One yield model was developed for Pakistan. Production was estimated by multiplying area and yield forecasts. The explanatory variables included in the area models were lagged area under sugarcane lagged by one year and sugarcane procurement price. The explanatory variables used in the yield models were fertilizer consumption of sugarcane (kgs/ha), total water availability at farm gate during the crop growth period The analysis revealed that highly significant results for procurement price, lagged sugarcane area and water availability at farm gate during the crop growth period Sugarcane area and yield forecast models are very efficient and can be used to predict future area and yield estimates with reasonable level of accuracy a couple of months before sowing and harvesting of sugarcane crop By that time, secondary source data on all the used explanatory variables become available.
