Abstract
A study was conducted to construct a forecasting model for the annual maximum flood data of river Indus at Sukkur barrage. The Box-Jenkins ARlMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) methodology was used for forecasting. The diagnostic checking showed that ARIMA (2, 1, 1) was appropriate. Using ARlMA (2, 1, 1), 11 years ahead forecasts and 95% confidence interval were made.
