Abstract
Various researchers have concluded the existence of many glaciers in doubt by the end of this
century due to global warming phenomenon. The great Himalayas are also under such stress. The
recent acceleration in rainfall pattern resulted the ever worst destruction due to floods (2010) in
Pakistan. Many Watershed models, capable of incorporating the climate change scenarios have been
developed in this regard to predict the future flows. But it is not easy to select the most appropriate
model for a particular watershed to get the best results. In this regard, the paper is an effort where the
analysis has been made on Astore Watershed, Pakistan, by considering the model results obtained
from the three watershed models i.e. UBC Watershed Model, HBV-Met and HBV-PRECIS. The results
are obtained by considering different glaciated extents of 100%, 50% and 0% under future climate
scenario (SRES A2), simulated by PRECIS Regional Climate Model for (2071-2100). For changed
climate scenario, discharges for the simulations at 100% reduction in glaciated area were -72%, -
15% and -46% for HBV-Met, HBV-PRECIS and UBC Watershed Model respectively.
Usman Ali Naeem, Hashim Nisar Hashmi, Muhammad Ali Shamim, Naeem Ejaz. (2012) Flow Variation in Astore River under Assumed Glaciated Extents Due to Climate Change, Pakistan Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Volume 11, Issue 1 .
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