Abstract
Repetitive dengue fever outbreaks in Pakistan have brought major concerns to the government authorities to control this mosquito borne disease. Although dengue cases are reported in many cities of Pakistan but Lahore has been the most affected city during last few years. In 2011, dengue outbreaks in Lahore are considered as the worst epidemic in the national history. There is an urgent need to manage this disease effectively. In order to keep the virus under control, it is also required to explore the possible causes and factors that support dengue virus to grow. In this study climatic and environmental factors that may presumably promote the growth of virus are selected and their spatial and temporal variations are correlated with dengue cases. The objective of this paper is to develop a geospatial dengue risk model to identify the risk prone areas by linking these factors with dengue outbreaks using satellite data and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques. Satellite images of SPOT-5, Landsat-TM and Google Earth are used in this study to derive environmental and landuse parameters. The model parameters used for this study are Land Surface Temperature (LST), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), built-up area, population, population density and precipitation. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Geographical Weighted Regression (GWR) analyses are performed to develop regression models between dengue cases and other study parameters. Based on study results, it is concluded that study parameters are not suitable for OLS global model since no statistically strong model can be found using OLS. GWR analysis is a form of linear regression that can model spatially varying relationships between variables. The GWR model shows that using population density and built-up area as explanatory variables, the model can explain 77% of the variance in dengue incidences.

BILAL TARIQ, ARJUMAND Z. ZAIDI. (2015) Geo-statistical Dengue Risk Model Case Study of Lahore Dengue Outbreaks 2011, Journal of Space Technology , Volume 5, Issue 1.
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